To paraphrase former President Franklin D. Roosevelt: July 17th, 2018, could be another date which will live in infamy.
It was the date of the ill-conceived summit between American President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the right, pundits were praising Trump for his willingness to meet and continue discussions with our longtime foe while others, primarily on the left, were concerned about what may happen. Putin is a former KGB agent and power-hungry leader who has murdered dissenters in his own country and beyond as well as directed efforts to influence the Presidential election of 2016. Trump is a real estate magnate and reality TV star who has no desire for preparation for such vitally important meetings. It was bound to be a showdown for the ages. You almost expected John Buffer to kick it off by saying, “Let’s get ready to rumble!!!”
But the actual summit became a footnote when Trump decided to publicly embrace Putin and disregard the findings of the totality of the United States intelligence services. Trump’s direct quote from the press conference was: “My people came to me, Dan Coats (director of National Intelligence), came to me and some others they said they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin. He just said it’s not Russia. I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be. I have great confidence in my intelligence people but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.”
Since that moment, political figures on both sides of the aisle came out against the statement describing it as weak, disgraceful, pathetic, high crimes and even treason. I’m not going to go that far in my assumption of Trump’s statement, but I do want to analyze it further because there is one big question that hasn’t been answered yet: Why?
Why would Trump take the word of an autocratic demagogue over the members of his intelligence community? Why, after twelve more indictments had been recently handed down, would Trump not publicly denounce the actions of Putin and his Russian counterparts to interfere in our democratic process? Trump had the perfect opportunity to stand up for America in front of the entire world and he balked. Why?
First, let’s look at some facts.
1. In a January 2017 assessment, multiple agencies agreed that Russia attempted and succeeded in meddling with the 2016 election. Those agencies included the CIA, FBI, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Security Agency, Justice Department, House Intelligence Committee and Senate Intelligence Committee. The overall consensus of these findings concluded the primary goal was to assist Trump in achieving the highest political office in America. These findings have been confirmed by high-ranking officials in the Trump administration, including Mike Pompeo, CIA Director, and Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, National Security Advisor.
2. Trump, himself, has deflected blame at a variety of other targets, such as China or somebody “sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds.” These accusations have been thrown around recklessly without evidence and based loosely on his own feelings. There has been zero evidence revealed to the public that would support these claims.
3. Trump has also continuously defended Putin and Russia through Twitter and public pronouncements. In November 2017, Trump said of Putin: “He said he didn’t meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times. Every time he sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe, I really believe, that when he tells me that, he means it.” He calls the investigation a “hoax” or “witch hunt” repeatedly, the latter of those terms being used on Twitter nearly 100 times as of this writing.
Now that we have some facts out of the way, let’s try to analyze why Trump can’t just say “Russia meddled in the election.” Here are some potential scenarios and my perceived implications from each.
1. Trump truly believes Putin when he says he didn’t do it. That may be a fine and simple explanation if Putin wasn’t a butcher and a war criminal who can’t be trusted. He is the leader of a country without a free press, where state-run propaganda acts as news and obfuscates his crimes to his own people. Putin aside, this scenario would mean Trump is disregarding the work of hundreds of intelligence professionals based on a whim. There are thousands of pages of evidence that has been presented to Trump that virtually proves Russia’s involvement yet, because he trusts his gut, Trump believes Putin. Although Trump has said he believes Putin numerous times, this cannot be the truth.
2. Trump cannot admit that Russia meddled in the election because it delegitimizes his victory. If Trump admits that Russia did, in fact, influence the election, that would also mean he’s admitting he didn’t beat Hillary Clinton fair and square. At least, that’s how it feels to him and his supporters; therefore, his ego can’t allow him to admit the meddling occurred. Out of all the Presidents I can remember in my lifetime, Trump seems to have the most fragile ego of them all. Many have compared him to a high school bully, because of the childish name-calling of his opponents, over-aggressive tactics against the media, his actions during the campaign and even before he was a candidate. Winning matters to Trump more than almost anything and numbers are a big part of winning, according to him. Trump won the electoral college, giving him the Presidency, but lost the popular vote by just less than 3 million votes. This discrepancy irritates him so much that he spent the first several months blaming illegal voters for those numbers. The day after he was sworn in, Trump forces his Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, to confront the media and falsely claim Trump’s inauguration was “the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period, both in person and around the globe” although visible evidence to the contrary was easily attainable. This was later referred to as an “alternative fact” by Kellyanne Conway and even Spicer said he “screwed up” after his short tenure at the White House. An illegitimate victory for Trump would be like a punch in the gut from a true bully in front of the whole school at recess.
While we are on the topic of the legitimacy of the election, I want to point out I’m not saying the Russians changed any votes after they were cast at the ballot box, which seems to be one of the favorite talking points of Republicans. So far, there is no evidence of that, but that is not what the “meddling” is referring to. The meddling began in 2015 with a true “fake news” campaign that was able to sway public confidence more in Trump’s favor. For example, this included the conspiracy theory “Pizzagate” which almost resulted in disaster as a man armed with multiple guns descended upon the Washington D.C. pizza restaurant searching for children who were supposedly locked in the basement. This was somehow linked to Clinton and many people believed it without question because they saw it on Facebook or Twitter. This is the kind of Russian meddling that occurred before the 2016 election that made a difference and resulted in Trump’s victory. Keep in mind that, even based on the electoral college, Trump only won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan by just over 77,000 votes. That is 0.0005% of total votes cast and it is very easy to accept that that a larger percentage than that were influenced by the Russian meddling, leaving us where we are today.
3. Putin and Russia possess kompromat that could embarrass or lead to criminal charges against Trump. We’ve all heard of the infamous “Pee-Tape.” Kompromat is a Russian term meaning “compromising material.” The term is used primarily in espionage circles because Russia is known for trying to find compromising material on anyone of note that visits Russia. This happens so frequently that many VIP visitors to Russia don’t even take their own cell phones; they purchase temporary phones to use on trips to Russia.
Donald Trump Jr. has repeatedly intimated that the Trump family business receives a large amount of money from Russia, whether that be through bank loans, individual investments, or some other source is currently unknown to the public. Trump visited Russia in 2013 when he presented the Miss Universe, which he owns. Trump was paid $20 million dollars by Aras Agalarov, Russian billionaire with ties to Putin. Before the pageant, Trump strangely Tweeted “Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow – if so, will he become my new best friend?” Trump has changed his story multiple times as to whether or not he met Putin during that trip, but he does claim Putin sent him a gift. Trump’s story has shifted from not knowing Putin at all to having a great relationship with the dictator so many times no one seems to really know the truth. Trump denies staying the night in Moscow, even though records from the Moscow Ritz-Carlton say otherwise. This is where the alleged “pee-tape” was recorded, according to a colorful and partially unsubstantiated dossier.
But, if Putin has any Kompromat on Trump, it may be something other than the “pee-tape.” There are nearly limitless possibilities based on Trump’s own past behavior. At the press conference, a reporter asked Putin if he had any kompromat on Trump. Trump simply smiled while Putin laughed and dodged the question saying he “had heard those rumors” and that he “didn’t even know that he was in Moscow.” Several reports contradict that statement saying a meeting with Trump was penciled in for Putin’s schedule during the Miss Universe pageant but was scrapped just a few days before.
This may sound like a far-fetched scenario, but it’s becoming more and more believable with every passing day. The fact that Trump would stand on an international stage and pass up the opportunity to deliver a full-throated denouncement of Russia’s actions against the United States makes this even more possible, especially since Trump seems to have no problem confronting people who are our allies like those who are part of the NATO alliance just a few days before. He has rarely had a bad word to say against Putin. Although he now claims to have a “good relationship” with Kim Jung Un, he used to belittle him with the nickname “Little Rocket Man” and threaten him with “fire and fury” with aplomb. Literally every supposed “enemy” has a nickname, but the leader of the country considered the United States’ longest and most threatening adversary is called “strong and powerful.” It doesn’t make any sense.
So, the question still remains: why? These are just three possible explanations and none of them are very comforting as many of us sit back and watch our democracy crumble before our very eyes.
